Pair detail

AVB / ESS

Market: SPY | As of Apr 29, 2026 | Source: live

Pair overview

Bias uses the latest z-score sign (positive → short A / long B).

Bias	Symbol	Company	Sector / Industry	Market cap USD	Last Close	Div Yield
Short	AVB	AvalonBay Communities, Inc.	Real Estate · REIT - Residential	25.6B	$184.37	3.81%
Long	ESS	Essex Property Trust, Inc.	Real Estate · REIT - Residential	17.1B	$264.92	3.89%

Key metrics

Decision signals

Entry, sizing, and stability anchors for the trade.

Z-score?Z = (S - μ) / σ. Higher absolute values mean larger deviation; |z| >= 2 is often a potential entry.

+2.14

Hedge ratio (γ)?Units of B needed to hedge 1 unit of A. More stable ratios are easier to trade.

0.842

Correlation?Higher correlation is better for pair stability. Values close to 1 imply strong co-movement.

0.84

Half-life (days)?Estimated mean-reversion speed. Lower days mean faster reversion.

5.7

ADF p-value?Stationarity test on the spread. Lower is better; below 0.05 is preferred.

0.000

Quality62/100

C+Grade

Signal?Signal is derived from z-score vs entry/exit thresholds. Long spread means long A and short B; short spread is the opposite.

Short spread

z = +2.14?Current standardized spread. Positive means A rich vs B; negative means A cheap vs B.

Entry threshold?Entry zone for trades. Higher absolute z means more extreme deviation.|z| ≥ 2.0

Exit threshold?Exit zone. When |z| returns near zero, the spread has mean-reverted.|z| ≤ 0.5

Distance to entry?How far the current |z| is from the entry threshold.0.00

Trade bias?Explicit long/short legs for the spread. Positive z implies A rich vs B; negative z implies A cheap vs B.Short AVB, long ESS. Size: 1x AVB vs 0.84x ESS.

Backtest

Historical performance

Rule-based outcomes over the lookback window.

Backtest reality check

Historical trade outcomes using the entry/exit rules.

Trades (lookback)3

Trades / year3.0

Win rate100%

Median hold7.0d

Avg return (gross)2.28%

Avg return (net)2.28%

Max drawdown1.15%

Profit factor∞

Sharpe6.51

Best / worst2.98% / 1.89%

Backtest trades

Showing 3 of 3

Entry	Exit	Side	Hold	Net
2025-12-11	2025-12-18	Long AVB / Short ESS	7d	+1.97%
2025-10-31	2025-11-17	Long AVB / Short ESS	17d	+1.89%
2025-04-29	2025-05-02	Short AVB / Long ESS	3d	+2.98%

Charts

Behavior over time

Price, spread, and hedged path context.

Z-score

Z-score trajectory with entry/exit bands.

Chart window: 90d

Entry ±2.0Exit ±0.5

Leg prices (normalized)

Relative move of each leg across the window.

Chart window: 90d

Normalized to 100 at window start.

Hedged position

Hedged spread with entry-zone shading.

Chart window: 90d

Spread = A - (alpha + gamma · B)

Model diagnostics

Spread mechanics

Helpful for validation and monitoring.

Raw spread?Raw spread = A - γ·B in price space. Positive means A is rich vs B.

-38.6688

Price-space spread

Residual spread?Residual spread = residual(A) - (alpha + gamma · residual(B)). Market-neutralized via index regression.

0.031144

Market-neutral residual spread

Pair intercept?OLS intercept for the pair regression. Closer to 0 is cleaner.

-0.0352

OLS intercept on residualized returns

Rolling corr std (21d)?Rolling correlation variability. Lower values indicate more stable pairs.

0.067

Stability (21d rolling)

Mean corr?Average rolling correlation. Higher is better for stable pairs.0.847

Std dev?Standard deviation of rolling correlation. Lower means more stable.0.067

Min / Max?Range of rolling correlation. Higher minimum indicates stronger stability.0.657 / 0.973

Below 0.70?Count of 21d windows where correlation dropped below the minimum threshold. Lower is better.8

Window 252d

Z-score distribution

Percentile?Position of current z-score within the window. Near 0 or 100 indicates extremes.99%

Min / Max?Historical extremes of z-score in the chart window.-2.89 / +2.53

Mean reversions?Count of times z crossed from entry zone back to exit zone. More events imply more opportunities.3

Entry |z| ≥ 2.0 · Exit |z| ≤ 0.5

Risk & invalidation

MAE (median)0.12z

MAE (max)0.59z

Stop suggestionz > 3.5

Regime min corr0.657

Z-score context

Spread mean (mu)-0.000000

Spread std (sigma)0.014579

Robust Z (MAD)Off

Z = (S - mu) / sigma | Window 252d

Quality score

Composite of cointegration, stability, and mean reversion signals.

C+62/100

Cointegration (ADF)Pass

Stability (corr std)Stable

Mean reversionFast

LiquidityUnknown

Regime riskNormal

Model transparency

Regression uses OLS on market-neutral residual returns. ADF test is applied to the residual spread series.

Window 252d · Lookback 10y

Z-score window: 252d trading days

Correlation window: 252d trading days

Spread formula: S = A - (alpha + gamma * B) | Raw spread: A - gamma * B

Entry |z| ≥ 2.0 · Exit |z| ≤ 0.5

Min correlation filter: 0.70